TenthOfMarch.com

I received a comment from reaymond in one of my previous posts. If you have read the comments left by “some aliens” (exist today, but vanish tomorrow) in my blog, you will understand what I mean when I say, reaymond sounded like “someone”. So the normal routine of checking the IP address was done. And though it was close, it was safe to say that reaymond is “clean”. That is why I approved it.

Later in the day when I had more time, I did some further investigations and found that reaymond could have been “someone” from within Advertlets. Here are my findings:

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1. IP address

All the IP addresses of DevilsAdvocate, amateur, reaymond and Josh Lim are somehow “linked”. I made a mistake earlier by approving reaymond’s comment because the range of his IP address works differently from the other IP addresses that I have seen so far. Based on my observation on the other commenter’s IP addresses in this same range, it is safe to say that all the IP addresses recorded by DevilsAdvocate, amateur, reaymond and Josh Lim are somehow “linked” and could have came from the same computer/network. In fact, in one occasion, reaymond had the same IP address as Josh Lim.

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2. Feed/RSS reader

Amateur, reaymond and Josh Lim uses the same feed/rss reader. Even the version of the program is the same. Please take note that the feed/rss reader that they are using is not the latest version and that there are dozens of other feed/rss readers in the market. DevilsAdvocate is not included in this list because I was not able to collect this information on him at that time.

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3. Subscribed feeds (this is the bomb)

Amateur, reaymond and Josh Lim subscribed not only to my post and comments feed, but coincidentally, all 3 of them also subscribed to the same 2 posts’ feeds in my blog.

To those who are a bit lost on this point, let me explain. A feed/rss reader is like a web browser (eg. Internet Explorer, Firefox, etc). It is an alternative way to “browse” my blog. Subscribing to a feed is like bookmarking a page in your web browser. What is happening now is that all 3 of them (amateur, reaymond and Josh Lim) bookmarked the same 2 posts in my blog.

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I have around 50 posts and what are the odds/probability of all 3 of them bookmarking the same 2 posts, and using the same type of feed/rss reader? (Note: There are dozens of different feed/rss readers. Based on my statistics, I limit the amount of “feed/rss reader” to 10)

Question:
What are the odds/probability that the scenario below happens?

1. There are 3 people (amateur, reaymond and Josh Lim).
2. There are 10 types of feed/rss reader to choose from.
3. There are 50 posts that can be bookmarked.
4. All 3 of them needs to bookmark 2 different posts.
5. All 3 of them used the same feed/rss reader and bookmarked the same 2 posts as the others.

Answer:
The probability for the above scenario to happen is 1 in 149,253,731 cases.

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To better visualize the figure above, I “consulted” a probability expert in the field of gambling — TOTO. Their “Super TOTO 6/49″ is to pick 6 numbers out of 1 to 49. The prize money if someone hits the jackpot is RM5,441,000.

Therefore, based on the probability of the given scenario above to happen, it’s a whooping RM58,073,529 jackpot.

Note: Some “variables” are not included, not discussed or just ignored in this question to reduce the complexity of the formula. Example: In reality, no one is forced to bookmark any posts.

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For those of you who are still confused of what is happening, here is a summary of it all. There have been rumours that Josh Lim has been disguising himself using anonymous names in a few blogs while backstabbing Nuffnang. They say if there is smoke, there must be fire some where. I cannot confirm the happenings of such an event in other blogs, but I can say it seems to have happened in my blog, not once but twice.

Once again, I leave it to you, my readers to make up your own minds. I’m just discussing some mathematic probabilities here — nothing more nothing less.

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