Advertlets Riddle: Main Dish (Final)

I received a comment from reaymond in one of my previous posts. If you have read the comments left by “some aliens” (exist today, but vanish tomorrow) in my blog, you will understand what I mean when I say, reaymond sounded like “someone”. So the normal routine of checking the IP address was done. And though it was close, it was safe to say that reaymond is “clean”. That is why I approved it.

Later in the day when I had more time, I did some further investigations and found that reaymond could have been “someone” from within Advertlets. Here are my findings:

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1. IP address

All the IP addresses of DevilsAdvocate, amateur, reaymond and Josh Lim are somehow “linked”. I made a mistake earlier by approving reaymond’s comment because the range of his IP address works differently from the other IP addresses that I have seen so far. Based on my observation on the other commenter’s IP addresses in this same range, it is safe to say that all the IP addresses recorded by DevilsAdvocate, amateur, reaymond and Josh Lim are somehow “linked” and could have came from the same computer/network. In fact, in one occasion, reaymond had the same IP address as Josh Lim.

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2. Feed/RSS reader

Amateur, reaymond and Josh Lim uses the same feed/rss reader. Even the version of the program is the same. Please take note that the feed/rss reader that they are using is not the latest version and that there are dozens of other feed/rss readers in the market. DevilsAdvocate is not included in this list because I was not able to collect this information on him at that time.

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3. Subscribed feeds (this is the bomb)

Amateur, reaymond and Josh Lim subscribed not only to my post and comments feed, but coincidentally, all 3 of them also subscribed to the same 2 posts’ feeds in my blog.

To those who are a bit lost on this point, let me explain. A feed/rss reader is like a web browser (eg. Internet Explorer, Firefox, etc). It is an alternative way to “browse” my blog. Subscribing to a feed is like bookmarking a page in your web browser. What is happening now is that all 3 of them (amateur, reaymond and Josh Lim) bookmarked the same 2 posts in my blog.

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I have around 50 posts and what are the odds/probability of all 3 of them bookmarking the same 2 posts, and using the same type of feed/rss reader? (Note: There are dozens of different feed/rss readers. Based on my statistics, I limit the amount of “feed/rss reader” to 10)

Question:
What are the odds/probability that the scenario below happens?

1. There are 3 people (amateur, reaymond and Josh Lim).
2. There are 10 types of feed/rss reader to choose from.
3. There are 50 posts that can be bookmarked.
4. All 3 of them needs to bookmark 2 different posts.
5. All 3 of them used the same feed/rss reader and bookmarked the same 2 posts as the others.

Answer:
The probability for the above scenario to happen is 1 in 149,253,731 cases.

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To better visualize the figure above, I “consulted” a probability expert in the field of gambling — TOTO. Their “Super TOTO 6/49″ is to pick 6 numbers out of 1 to 49. The prize money if someone hits the jackpot is RM5,441,000.

Therefore, based on the probability of the given scenario above to happen, it’s a whooping RM58,073,529 jackpot.

Note: Some “variables” are not included, not discussed or just ignored in this question to reduce the complexity of the formula. Example: In reality, no one is forced to bookmark any posts.

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For those of you who are still confused of what is happening, here is a summary of it all. There have been rumours that Josh Lim has been disguising himself using anonymous names in a few blogs while backstabbing Nuffnang. They say if there is smoke, there must be fire some where. I cannot confirm the happenings of such an event in other blogs, but I can say it seems to have happened in my blog, not once but twice.

Once again, I leave it to you, my readers to make up your own minds. I’m just discussing some mathematic probabilities here — nothing more nothing less.


18 thoughts on “Advertlets Riddle: Main Dish (Final)

  1. mooiness says:

    Clever disguise of your mathematical problem in your earlier post. :)

    I really don’t see why Advertlets would have needed to bad mouth Nuffnang to make themselves look good. They both have their strengths. They not only bad mouth Nuffnang but they did it deceitfully too which made them lost so much credibility.

    Plus they failed miserably in hiding their tracks. I find myself saying this over and over again, “These ppl work in IT?!” :P

  2. Freethinker says:

    Not to sound too geeky… probability that propose above is I think based on the concept of everything being equal and actually random.

    In real life, certain weightage are applied to particular subjects if the tendency of happening is higher….

    Therefore, in simpler terms, to put, the probability of the USUAL SUSPECTS of happening is actually higher.

    Wink Wink….

    Wei…I see a drop in ur readers… wah…so drastic ar

  3. Boss Lepton says:

    hehhehe ok clever disguise on the probability question earlier

    however I would like to say the probability in this case is much bigger than the one we calculated

    our assumptions were
    the events are independent and mutually exclusive

    this no longer applies in our case, since if the fella chose to include 1 post in the feed(for some reasons) he would be more likely to subscribe to the next feed with similar contents :D

    get wat i mean? hehehe anyway although improvement, it’s still a very small probability, how small though……. lazy to work out :P

  4. TenthOfMarch says:

    @evie
    Very desperate indeed :-) .

    @mooiness & Boss Lepton
    Hehehe. I did categorize that post in “Advertlets”. I think most people missed it.

    @Freethinker & Boss Lepton
    I’m a bit lost now :-( Sorry…now it’s obvious my probability sucks. Hahahha.

    I understand in real life, some “variables” have different weight etc. But to really calculate the weight of each variable, etc etc…wahhh…I think I will surely faint :-P .

    So you guys telling me, that the jackpot could be a lot less than RM58 Million lah? Of course, there are variables that I didn’t count, that will increase and decrease the possibility. So plus a bit, minus a bit, consider “even” lah, can or not? Hahaha.

    @Freethinker
    You mean the drop in feed subscriber? I’m not sure. Before this, it was around this number also. The total visitors so far, quite ok. No significant drop.

    @Mossie`Ol Chin
    Wahhh…now screening the 6th edition of “I’m Nuffnang, I’m Advertlets” already ah? Hehe.

  5. aw says:

    Wah, this chicken not bad. Bloody heck, this A******** damn shameless.

    10/3: I think the effect is quite muted though. Probably because you didn’t want to be *too* mean. Now that there is concrete proof, if I were you I would have a post entitled, “Josh Lim Is a Fraud and a Wine Poser” with a byline “Pretends to be Someone Else to Boost Slipshod Advertlets and Bring Down Competitor”. Ahahahaha

    Maybe the small drop in traffic is due to Josh scrambling in not visiting this any more while he searches on how to mask his IP, ahahahahahahaha

  6. Freethinker says:

    I think I saw 40 yesterday..

    Well, as mentioned earlier by me and echoed by Lepton. The probability theory is much higher ( a bit ) given you are dealing with a group who has extra likelyhood or tendency than any average joe u pick from the street.

    So ya know what I mean.

  7. aw says:

    Re: probability,

    if this “reaymond” and Josh had the exact same IP in 2 hours, anyone who knows even a little about the Internet will agree that it’s quite impossible.

    reaymond would have to log off his Streamyx/dialup and Josh newly log in at almost the exact same time that the previous IP is released by Streamyx. Where can so ngam-ngam get same IP one, with so many Streamyx users in the PJ area?

    10/3: BTW, yeah that last email was from me, from my phone. Ahahaha.

  8. TenthOfMarch says:

    @aw
    Well, initially when I gathered enough evidence, I wrote a drafted post with the title having almost similar “meaning” to yours. But later I felt it’s better not to do that, even though the title could have been more catchy. If other bloggers think my post is “informative”, they can always write about it — like what mossism did.

    No-no. There is no drop in traffic. The total unique visitors is as high as the previous days. The only thing that came down slightly is the total hits and returning visitors. The total feed subscribers is also showing less.

    Yup. And I didn’t consider IP address, web browser and the feed reader’s version as a variable in my calculation.

    Hahahaha. Hey, how many e-mail address do you have lah? Next time you use a different one, give me some “sign” can or not? hehehehe.

    @Freethinker
    Yup. It was up to 40 yesterday. What I can think of is, it could be due to people unsubscribing, or they did not run their feed readers. Thus, their “subscription” is not counted.

    Yes, I think I know what you mean. If I were to randomly pick the 3 people from a crowd, then the calculation may be correct. But now because I’m picking 3 people who are probably here for the same reason, therefore the probability of them bookmarking the same 2 posts is higher. Ok, got it.

  9. hanneng says:

    Story ended already huh? The ending is not bad lah..

    Reading your blog, got confuse me.
    sometimes chicken, sometimes TOTO, sometimes want us to do math ..

    aiyoh …

    the moral of the story is : Truth will come to light sooner or later.

  10. TenthOfMarch says:

    @hanneng
    Hehe. Well, there are a few points to elaborate. So, I decided to do one at a time. If I write everything in one post, it might be a little too long. Anyway, it was great that “reaymond” reacted to my earlier post, e-mailed me, that’s why I had “one extra post”.

    Come to think of it, where is “reaymond” now? There is still a possibility that I am wrong, and that reaymond is not Josh Lim. Who knows, there could be a “Part 2″ of this story. We will see.

    @reaymond
    Where art thou?

  11. ABC says:

    slacker: thats provided he’s real in the 1st place.. lol..

    why dont you meet up with this raeymond fella. He will most probably admit that he is the identical twin of josh lim. Followed up with a sad story of how he and josh grew up.

    sounds like a good story.. can i tag along please?

  12. TenthOfMarch says:

    @nyx
    Hmmm…nicely put.

    @Philip Yong
    Well, the first time when I had evidence that linked DevilsAdvocate (here and here) to Josh Lim, he should have been smart enough to refrain himself from repeating it.

    If you ask my opinion, I don’t think he deserves another chance. Unless he somehow apologizes for his previous actions. Tough luck, I know.

    @slacker
    Thanks. However, if this reaymond guy truly exists, where in the world is he now? I’m sure he will just “disappear” like DevilsAdvocate and amateur. But, it would be “fun” if he somehow decides to show himself again :-) .

    @ABC
    Hahaha. I think Nabil or Josh Lim invited aw and I over to meet the two of them, to confirm that they are two different individuals. Check out this post and you will know what I mean.

    But seriously, I don’t think I want to waste any money to phone or meet them up. If anyone is willing to sponsor my expenses, then different story :-) Don’t worry, if I ever meet up with either one of them, I’ll bring you, and any others who want to join. I need some backup — in case it’s a “trap”. LOL.

  13. Pingback: Nuffnang Vs Advertlets At Its Ugliest Battle at TenthOfMarch.com

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